Post by michaelangelo on Oct 27, 2016 22:45:13 GMT
I'm not sure that Obama hasn't moved an inch. He might have been able to do more in Ukraine, for example.
From my understanding, the US is admitting up to 10,000 Syrian refugees. Clinton may or may not increase that number, but I'm sure she'll hold herself to that commitment at the very least. Trump, if we're to think that his administration would reflect his campaign rhetoric, would definitely decline the intake of refugees. Just google "Trump syrian refugees" and it's hard not to visualize that. However, he'd probably have to put up political fight at home in order to make it happen.
Deliberate and continual NATO expansionism along Russia's borders is the reason you've got what you've got, at the moment, from Russia. And a string of broken promises and lies from 'the West', as usual.
Contemporary history time again, only moving pictures this time, and not the written word.
Well. Next four years should be interesting as fuck.
What Donald wants and what Donald gets in the real world are two entirely different things. Personally, I think when he runs into established real world entities and mechanisms like, the CFR, I think he'll fold like the cowardly, bullshitting, two dollar hooker he really is. But we will wait and see.
I'm an immigrant and I am no longer entertained. It's getting ugly here for our kind. If people don't notice the trend that is going around in the West, they're not paying attention.
Ultimately, the Democratic party is responsible. Trump, while losing the popular vote, won the electoral college fair and square. To lose to this guy shows the grossest of incompetence and they deserve it. The electoral district map shows that people in cities and people in rural areas live in a completely different world. The white/nonwhite divide was just as stark. We west coast/east coast guys are out of touch with Middle America. Sometimes, I think this country is just too large and that makes it easier for polarization to deepen. I just hope that, being in power, Trump will learn of all the nuances and responsibilities that come with his office and moderate his more extreme views. I'm pessimistic about that, but I can still hope. Not sure I can say that about the most extreme of his supporters.
However, there is some predictability in the middle of all the madness. The House is controlled by republicans. The Senate is controlled by republicans. While the republicans aren't fully in step with Trump, there are many places where they agree. Obama was obstructed by Congress. Trump will be obstructed by no one.
1. Obamacare is dead. It had its problems, but it could have been tinkered with. Many people will be left uninsured and the market system will either refuse to assist those with pre-existing conditions or charge them huge prices. I hope they not only remove it, but also replace it with something that will accommodate for that fact.
2. For being the supposed populist, the names that are floating around for the treasury - for example - are Wall Street Bankers. Wonder if they are just rumors. But if the likes of Giuliani and his other surrogates (such as Jeff Sessions) get power, we're fucked in so many ways.
3. Rand Paul is excited to roll back regulations. Republicans agree on this. Trump will sign off. We are certainly over-regulated and sometimes misregulated, but they have a history of going overboard. Already, talks are going on about whether he will or will not remove the fiduciary rule.
4. Trump will be able to nominate a supreme court justice, which will revive old battles such as the fight against abortion. I'm skeptical that they'll put gay marriage back in the arena.
5. The Paris Agreement will have to face the prospect of an early exit from the US. We are the country of right-wing climate change deniers. Trump still wants to prop up coal for the benefit of the coal miners. That means deregulation, subsidy, and progress set back once more.
6. Additional gun control measures are dead. Except, perhaps, for the no-fly list.
But like I said, the republicans are not fully in step with Trump. For example, he wishes to rebuild our infrastructure, which is something I could get behind. However, Trump has vowed to cut the corporate tax and cut the personal income tax. We don't have the money for the infrastructure projects unless we do deficit spending and expand our debt. Good thing that interest rates are down. Or he would have to significantly cut government spending in other areas. Even then, it's a tough task. I wonder whether the republicans will hold to their principles. I really have no idea how that will go down.
Another area of interest is foreign policy. Whatever your opinion on NATO and Russia may be, Trump creates uncertainty here. Maybe Trump will change his mind if he thinks the world perception is that he is weak on the global stage and, as a result, be tougher on Russia. Maybe he'll like Putin and we'll see alliances shift and sanctions soften even further. Populists movements in France and other upcoming elections could create a similar effect. This could result in Eastern European countries getting increasingly nervous and having to build up its military if they feel that they can no longer rely on the West. But, in all honesty, I have no idea and anyone who thinks they know what will happen is likely wrong. But Republicans have never been a fan of Russia so this is a potential point of conflict but I don't know if they have what it takes to stand up to Trump.
TPP is also something that republicans would support but Trump puts them in a tough spot. Republicans are supposed to be the party of free market economics but there was a real backlash against this among both the left and the right in this election cycle. The question is whether trump will stop it, pass it, or "improve" it and then pass it. Congress's response will be very interesting. TTIP, whether you're in favor or against, is probably dead because of Trump's anti-trade rhetoric and the lack of popularity it seems to have in European countries. I suspect that Trump's first move will be to establish some sort of trade relations with the UK, since the UK will probably have a tough fight in their hands with the EU and Trump seems to have a friendship with Nigel Farage.
Yes, you could get Reaganomics and Reagan all over again. Then again, you might just get something different. He knows he's despised by the majority and walks a tightrope in all directions atm, so first thing he needs to do is to broaden his appeal from the disaffected white fucks and hardcore anti-globalists that put him there.
Like I've said before; what Trump wants and what he actually gets in the real world are not necessarily the same. Whether he or anyone else likes it things move on, times change, along with people's vision and expectation.
And you're absolutely right, the Democrats are absolutely to blame for this. If you're stupid enough to push someone as toxic as Hilary Clinton, at the expense of someone like Sanders, in a straight fight of the 'outsiders' then you've got what you deserved. You've been outsmarted, out manoeuvred by someone who should have been consigned to the dustbin of political history long ago.
Look at the numbers for 'Brexit', if you had the referendum again that result would be reversed to roughly the same numbers (because a hefty chunk of people stupidly made it a protest vote) (which is why May would never offer a second vote unless forced to - which could happen). Farage is as despised as Trump here by the silent majority and he can't set foot in Scotland without an armed escort - and Donald and his golf club has always been as popular with Scots as ebola and the Tories...
And if May proceeds with hard Brexit then Scotland will be independent not long after, and there will be no more 'United Kingdom' which effectively eviscerates it's current standing on the world stage operating it's 'soft power' role (some would argue not a bad thing).
It looks obvious which way this is all heading - but it's not. You really think Trump is a two term president? There is a real possibility of fundamental change, institutional and otherwise in the US and other Western countries, that simply would not have been possible if Clinton had won, had Brexit not happened. Sure the opposition stinks of shit but they have a point and a valid story to tell also.
It's up to you and your generation to keep pushing for the change because things are going to 'flip-like-fuck' quickly because the world is in a state of idealogical and political flux atm.